What to Wear in Hong Kong in January

January is the coldest month on NOAA NCEI's record for Hong Kong International Airport, and the one where cold nights are routine. Afternoons average 19.6°C, but nights average 13.8°C / 57°F; about 10 of them reach 12°C or below and 5 reach 10°C or below, and on 8 or 9 days the high never passes 18°C. The air is the driest of the year, with a 10.3°C dew point and about 5 wet days. So pack warmth that compresses: a down liner, a waffle thermal and a zip knit that go on and off as the day swings, plus a beanie and a scarf for the cold mornings. The Standard Chartered Hong Kong Marathon runs on Sunday 17 January.

The capsule

1. 
   01

   Black collarless quilted down liner

   Pack the jacket Hong Kong's cold asks for, which is a light one. A black collarless down liner snaps shut over the knit on the 10 or so January nights at 12°C or below and rolls into the bucket bag when the afternoon reaches 19.6°C. Down rather than a wool coat, because the day swings nearly 6°C and a liner is the one warm layer you will not mind carrying.

2. 
   02

   Black waffle-knit thermal crew

   Wear it as the base on the colder nights. A black waffle thermal traps warm air under the zip knit when the night falls to 10°C or below, which happens about 5 times in a January on the airport record. The waffle texture also means it reads as a top, not underwear, when the liner comes off in a restaurant.

3. 
   03

   Heather-grey marl zip-front knit

   Your on-and-off layer. A heather-grey zip knit with a ribbed stand collar opens in a steamy dim sum hall and zips to the chin on the Star Ferry, and grey marl sits between the black pieces so the capsule never reads as one dark block. January's 10.3°C dew point, the driest air of the year, means a knit dries overnight after a drizzly day.

4. 
   04

   Black straight softshell trousers

   Black straight softshell trousers cut the wind on a harbourfront evening at 13.8°C / 57°F and shrug off the drizzle on about 5 wet days. Across a restaurant table they read as slim black trousers, and the zip pockets keep an Octopus card and a phone safe in a marathon crowd.

5. 
   05

   Black leather low-top sneakers

   One pair of shoes for everything. Black leather low-tops carry a day on foot from Sheung Wan to Wan Chai and wipe clean after the drizzle, where canvas stays damp in a month with about 5 wet days. Black leather also passes at a Central dinner, which white trainers do not.

6. 
   06

   Black leather bucket bag

   Big enough for the layers. A black leather bucket bag on a single shoulder strap swallows the down liner at noon and the beanie and scarf until sunset, which moves from 5:50pm to 6:10pm across the month. Carry it in front in a crowd; the open top is the price of the space.

7. 
   07

   Cobalt fine lambswool scarf

   Pack one colour, and put it at your neck. A cobalt lambswool scarf wound once under the liner covers the nights at 10°C or below and turns a black-and-grey capsule into a look. Cobalt rather than red, because red comes out next month for Lunar New Year.

8. 
   08

   Charcoal close-fit merino beanie

   For the marathon morning and the late walks home. The second half of January averages 13.4°C at night on the airport record, with about 6 nights at 12°C or below, and a close-fitting charcoal merino beanie keeps the wind off your ears on the harbourfront, then folds into a pocket by ten.

A suggested look — black quilted down liner jacket, grey marl zip-neck knit, black softshell trousers, black leather sneakers, cobalt wool scarf.

What to avoid

• December's tweed-and-cashmere plan — cold nights rise from about 6 to about 10
• A parka — afternoons still average 19.6°C
• Canvas shoes — they stay damp after the drizzle on about 5 wet days
• Leaving the layers behind on a bright morning — 8 or 9 days never pass 18°C