What to Wear in Tokyo in January

Pack for standing still. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) gives Tokyo's January 192.6 hours of sun, the most of any month, with rain on only 4.5 days and humidity at 51%. Afternoons reach 9.8°C / 50°F. Mornings fall to 1.2°C / 34°F, and the minimum drops below freezing on 8.1 of them. December is a month for walking under lights. January asks you to wait outdoors: Meiji Jingu says its grounds are busiest from 10pm on New Year's Eve to 3am and after 10am on the first three days, and on 11 January Coming of Age Day fills ward-hall forecourts with furisode. So the capsule builds heat that holds while you stand still. A long navy coat, a light down jacket that zips under it, a thermal base, trousers wide enough for tights and a scarf long enough to wind twice.

The capsule

1. 
   01

   Navy single-breasted wool coat, notch lapel, below the knee

   Start with length. At 1.2°C / 34°F on a shrine approach at dawn, a coat that stops at the hip leaves your thighs in the cold, and this navy wool coat falls below the knee. Single-breasted with three buttons, it hangs open at a 10°C / 50°F lunch in full sun and buttons to the lapel in a queue. Navy holds the cream down, the crimson scarf and the cognac bag together without competing with any of them.

2. 
   02

   Cream quilted down jacket, stand collar, hip length

   Leave the puffer at home in December; bring this one in January, the month you stand in one place for an hour. A light cream down jacket with a stand collar zips under the long coat for the New Year's Eve queue, when Meiji Jingu's crowd peaks between 10pm and 3am. On one of the 23 January days JMA counts with at least 40% of possible sunshine, it works on its own over the knit.

3. 
   03

   Cream fitted long-sleeve base layer

   Heat that stays with you when the coat comes off. A fitted cream long-sleeve under the knit adds warmth without bulk on a frost morning, and the minimum drops below freezing on 8.1 of them. It is thin enough that the long coat still closes over the knit and the down. Forget it and you can replace it in town: Uniqlo has sold its HEATTECH thermal line since 2003, a joint effort with the fibre maker Toray.

4. 
   04

   Oatmeal heather cashmere crew

   Indoors, this is the outfit. An oatmeal heather crew in fine cashmere sits over the base layer and under the down, which gives you three thin layers instead of one heavy jumper, and each comes off on its own as a restaurant warms up. Oatmeal keeps the palette light against the navy coat, so the crimson scarf is the only strong colour near your face.

5. 
   05

   Charcoal pleated wide-leg trousers

   A wide leg leaves room for thermal tights underneath, and JMA records 8.1 January mornings below freezing. Front pleats keep the line straight from the hip to the boot, so the extra layer never shows. Charcoal sits between the navy coat and the black boots, and it takes a day of sitting on shrine benches and train seats without looking tired.

6. 
   06

   Black leather Chelsea boots, elastic sides, treaded sole

   Elastic sides pull off and on without laces, which matters at every restaurant door with a shoe shelf, and a treaded rubber sole grips on the mornings the minimum dips below zero. A snow boot is overkill: 1cm or more of snow falls on 0.7 days in an average January. Black leather wipes clean after one of the month's 4.5 wet days.

7. 
   07

   Cognac leather flap crossbody

   Keep both hands free. Meiji Jingu sets out its form of worship as an offering, two bows, two claps and one final bow, and after an hour in a New Year crowd you want your hands empty for it. A small cognac flap bag worn across the body holds coins, a phone and an IC card, sits in front of you in the crush, and is the one warm brown in a navy, cream and charcoal capsule.

8. 
   08

   Crimson lambswool scarf, fringed ends

   Wind it twice for the midnight queue and once for a sunny afternoon. A long crimson lambswool scarf closes the gap at the collar of both the coat and the down jacket, which is where the cold gets in when you stand still. It is the only strong colour in the capsule, chosen so the navy and cream around it look deliberate rather than muted.

A suggested look — navy wool coat, cream down jacket, crimson wool scarf, charcoal pleated wide-leg trousers, black chelsea boots.

What to avoid

• A rain shell — 4.5 wet days, the fewest of any month
• Snow boots — 1cm of snow falls on 0.7 days in an average January
• Lace-ups — shoes come off at restaurant doors, and laces slow every one
• One coat over a knit for the New Year's Eve queue — busiest from 10pm to 3am, with minimums near 2°C
• Late-afternoon shrine plans — Meiji Jingu's January gates close at 4:20pm